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The Economy Observer: Expect real GDP growth at 6.5-6.7
+ Share
05-Feb-2018
India's monthly economic activity index (EAI) grew 8.4% YoY in December 2017, marking strong growth for the second consecutive month. Favorable base and fiscal spending supported EAI growth in December.
While the EAI growth was broad-based, a 78-month high growth of ~15% YoY in investments - primarily driven by favorable base effect in construction,commercial auto sales and 21-month high growth in industrial credit - is encouraging. Wider trade deficit, however, acted as a drag on EAI growth.
Further, the consumption index also grew decently at 7.7% YoY in December 2017, partly supported by continued fiscal spending – up 21% YoY in December 2017.
Overall, better-than-expected growth in December- due to favorable base and continued high growth in fiscal spending - makes us believe that real GDP growth could improve from 6.3% in 2QFY18 to 6.5-6.7% in 3QFY18.
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