MOSL Universe (ex OMC) revenue is expected to grow at 3% YoY, while PAT is expected to decline 5% YoY. While EBITDA margins are expected to improve 80bp YoY to ~25.3% (v/s 10-year average of 25.2%), PAT margins are estimated to decline 80bp YoY to 11.1% (v/s 10-year average of 13.9%).
Metals and PSU Banks would report losses, impacting the aggregates. MOSL Universe (ex Metals and PSU Banks) earnings will grow 7.3% YoY in 4QFY16. PAT contribution of Metals and PSU Banks is expected at -1.2% v/s 5-year average of 16.4% (-6.5% in 3QFY16).
Nifty (ex-BPCL) sales would grow 3% in 4QFY16, while PAT is likely to grow 3% YoY, after five consecutive quarters of decline. The muted PAT growth for Nifty (ex-BPCL) is influenced by cyclicals. 8 out of 17 PAT de-growth companies are local cyclicals, whereas 4 are global cyclicals. Auto and Healthcare lead growth, with 9 out of 17 high PAT growth companies (>15%).