Industry Update Back
Financials: Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolution - Speed set to accelerate
08-Dec-2017

Although the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) was approved in May 2016, the activity under this code has picked up significantly only from July 2017 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) identified 12 large accounts forming 25% of the banking system's GNPAs for resolution under the IBC. With the resolution timeline on these cases coming close, we met several bankers and relevant industry personnel to assess the progress and understand the implications of this powerful law. While the recovery rate on the announced resolution stands paltry (~90% haircut in some cases), the outlook for certain metal and power assets is much more promising. The government and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) have amended the IBC and tightened the eligibility norms in bidding for stressed assets. While these measures might lead to higher haircuts, we believe that, over the longer term, it would prevent the re-entry of willful defaulters in the system and promote transparency.   According to our scenario analysis, resolution of NCLT cases (RBI's list 1 & 2) at 65% base case LGD should positively impact PSU banks' FY19E ABV by 6% to 26%, while private banks will see a modest ABV impact of 3% to 5%