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Economic Survey 2017-18 : Growth to accelerate to 7-7.5
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29-Jan-2018
The Economic Survey - the Indian government's flagship document that reviews the developments in the economy over the past 12 months - pegs India's growth at 6.75% for FY18, higher than the Central Statistics Office's (CSO) estimate of 6.5%. It estimates growth to improve to 7%-7.5% in FY19, with downside risks emanating from higher crude oil prices, rising protectionist tendencies, and tighter monetary conditions across the globe.
According to the Survey, GST collections have been surprisingly robust in the first five months post GST implementation, allaying fears of a shortfall in indirect tax collection. Higher than average buoyancy so far implies that GST could be a resilient source of revenue in the future.
It also points to a sharp 50% increase in the number of unique registered indirect tax payers post GST implementation and computes that the GST tax base (at INR 65-70t) and the implied Revenue Neutral Rate (RNR) at 15.6% are in line with the previous estimates, alleviating concerns surrounding the GST.
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