Iron ore (China CFR, 62% Fe) prices have shot up in the last few months to ~USD100/t ( up ~40% since the beginning of the year, Exhibit 1), which has started impacting product spreads of steel companies ( Exhibit 7). Vale's tailing dam breach incident has impacted ~50-60mtpa of sea-borne iron ore supply ( Exhibit 2). Chinese crude production growth, at the same time, continues at a healthy pace of ~10%(Exhibit 3).